Here is Dr Peter Bacon's 2000 report to the government on the likely effects of a construction boom in Ireland. Pay specific attention to pages 64 and 65 of the report, where the authors specify a simple econometric model to forecast house prices out for a few years under different conditions. Reading this report carefully (and listening to its recommendations) would have affected how the Irish economy evolved over the last 8 years. Here is a snippet from the 2000 report, p. 65, with my emphasis added:
At the same time, there are projected strong underlying trends in fundamentals (interest rates tending to rise, strong population growth and, in particular, high forecasted income growth based on ESRI simulations). In these combined circumstances it is clear there will be continuing upward pressure on prices. The simulations highlight the need for continuing measures to bring supply and demand into balance, at a price level that is sustainable and more affordable to first time buyers.
Given that Dr Bacon was also the author of the NAMA report, perhaps we should examine his current proposal in at least as great a detail as the property price report of 2000.
Anyone out there have a .pdf of the new Bacon report?
I'm sure you have it already, but for your readers: http://www.ntma.ie/Publications/2009/NAMAsummary6April09.pdf