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What the Lisbon (Reform) Treaty will do

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In this lecture we looked at the institutions of the EU, its legal framework, the structure and content of the Lisbon Treaty, and reviewed some basic microeconomics we'll use in the next lecture when assessing customs union formation, monetary union, and more. After the lecture, I remembered this quote, which helps put a lot of what we discussed in context.

37 years ago, then Taoiseach Jack Lynch spoke eloquently about Ireland’s vote, by an overwhelming 80%, to join the European Economic Community. He said in the Dáil on the 21st of March 1972 that

[t]oday we stand at a most important crossroads in our history. The road we will take will determine not only the future of our country for generations to come, but also the contribution we make to the creation of a Europe that will measure up to the high ideals of the founders of the Community. I am confident that the decision we take will reflect our people’s faith in their capacity to help fashion for themselves and for future generations of Irish men and women a better Ireland in a better Europe.

Lynch’s speech summed up the confidence of an era and the hope of more prosperous times. We have seen 37 years since his speech, and many of these years have been marked by the prosperity Lynch was looking forward to. The European project now stands at a precipice: the original function of European integration begun in the aftermath of World War 2 was simply to avoid another war. Europe’s leaders chose to achieve this political end by economic means, and so pursued a policy of increasing economic integration between member states. Europe today has a single market, a single currency, and relatively free movement of capital and labour between the member states. 37 years after Lynch’s speech, the project of economic integration is largely finished.  The Lisbon Treaty seeks to enhance and deepen the political union of the member states by amending previous treaties to, amongst other things, allow a smoother functioning of the Union itself. The Lisbon treaty also involves a limited transfer of sovereignty from each member state to the EU to achieve its aims. Lisbon is laying the groundwork for a larger and more federal Europe, with member states ceding powers and competencies to the EU where it’s size and global reach can be most effective. There are costs to this approach, of course, and Ireland’s referendum on October 2nd will allow Ireland’s people to weigh those costs against the potential benefits of a more politically integrated Europe.

37 years in the future, perhaps Ireland’s decision to accept the Lisbon treaty will be seen as a watershed moment in the EU’s history; a single step taken on a long road towards a ‘’United States of Europe”, or perhaps as a mistake which damaged Ireland’s long term interests. Perhaps our rejection of the treaty will be viewed as churlish and irresponsible, or as a great victory for the European project. The truth will be somewhere in between, and the truth is, Ireland’s decision probably won’t matter. Regardless of a yes or no vote, Ireland will remain in Europe and will benefit from its membership of Europe, but long term, a choice will have to be made about Ireland’s role in Europe—are we all the way in, or do we wish to selectively partake? Other countries have chosen the second route on different issues. Ireland, until now, has gone with full inclusion on almost every aspect of EU integration. The majority of Europe’s governments have decided to move ahead with the package of reforms contained in Lisbon in some form, meaning that Ireland will not be allowed to stop this long run political movement, regardless of the outcome of the vote on October 2nd. The momentum built up over more than 60 years of increasing economic and political integration will not be taken away by a single vote by a single people. That does not mean that a ‘no’ vote will cast Ireland into exile in the EU, but that a different set of reforms packaged in a different treaty will have to be negotiated. It may take another 5 years to get to Lisbon mark 3, but we have 40 until the year 2049, when the EU (through the Council of Europe) will be 100 years old.  Ireland will have been in Europe for 76 years then.

Click here to download the lecture notes as a .pdf, the handout is here, and the podcast of the lecture is below.

Economics of European Integration Lecture 2 from Stephen Kinsella on Vimeo.

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