Here is MIT's Simon Johnson writing about the reality of an IMF bailout: the internal politics and the degree to which the government of the individual country is captured by powerful interest groups largely determines the level of funding the IMF is willing to give. Economic theory is mostly out the door as the degree of seriousness of the individual minister is gauged via interview. Seriousness, here, is the willingness to let some powerful interest groups suffer to get the country out of a slump. Johnson writes:
Eventually, as the oligarchs in Putin’s Russia now realize, some within the elite have to lose out before recovery can begin. It’s a game of musical chairs: there just aren’t enough currency reserves to take care of everyone, and the government cannot afford to take over private-sector debt completely.
So the IMF staff looks into the eyes of the minister of finance and decides whether the government is serious yet. The fund will give even a country like Russia a loan eventually, but first it wants to make sure Prime Minister Putin is ready, willing, and able to be tough on some of his friends. If he is not ready to throw former pals to the wolves, the fund can wait. And when he is ready, the fund is happy to make helpful suggestions—particularly with regard to wresting control of the banking system from the hands of the most incompetent and avaricious “entrepreneurs.”