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If you’re on a tracker mortgage, send the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi flowers. He’s made your life a little easier. If you sell your stuff abroad, send Mario a gift card or a free sample. If you work in the management of a bank, fall to your knees and pray to His image, for Mario is your salvation.

The ECB this week decided to cut its three main interest rates further into negative territory, massively increase its asset purchase programme to €80 billion worth of assets per month (yes, per month) and change which types of assets they would buy.

Now the ECB will buy investment grade (non-bank) corporate bonds, as well as government bonds and other bank bonds.

In a world where negative interest rates are killing banks’ margins, Draghi announced a new programme of long-term loans to banks, which they may be paid to take on if the banks expand their own lending to people like you and me. This enticement to push more credit into the economy at historically low interest rates will not go unnoticed.

The causal assumption is that increases in credit increase growth and inflation, especially when unemployed people and underemployed capital assets such as factories get back working at nearly full capacity.

The combination of the balance sheet expansion and interest rate cuts was bold and decisive, and took almost everyone by surprise. The decision by the ECB was probably driven by the recent weaker than expected measurements of core inflation. The ECB’s reason for being is to keep inflation at or around 2 per cent per cent per annum, and right now it is 0.8 per cent.

What does this mean for Ireland? As I’ve mentioned, having a weak exchange rate helps you sell stuff if you’re a business, but taking assets off firms’ balance sheets and replacing them with cash will stimulate investment, employment and consumer spending. We will also see more lending through the credit channel as a result of the lower interest rate policies and new loan programmes pushing new credit into the system.

Ireland now has an economy growing faster than any in Europe with the most lax monetary policy anyone could have imagined. What could go wrong?

Well, quite a bit could go wrong.

Mario’s announcements are not brilliant news for Ireland’s savers – putting money away for a rainy day may well end up costing you rather than making you money. But for those in debt, the changes are a godsend. All hail Mario.

Taken together, and they do need to be seen as aspects of one package, these measures are expansionary, bold, and optimistic.

Now all Mario has to do is find €80 billion a month of stuff to buy — no joke when you’re going to do it for several years.

  Posts

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December 10th, 2019

Using Social Media to Boost your profile

My talk for the social media summit is here. 

November 5th, 2019

Innospace UL talk

Thanks for the invitation to speak, the whole talk is here. 

October 9th, 2019

Understanding the macroeconomy podcast

I really enjoyed my interview with Dr Niall Farrell of the Irish Economics Podcast. You can listen to it here:

September 15th, 2018

Identifying Mechanisms Underlying Peer Effects on Multiplex Networks

New paper with Hang Xiong and Diane Payne just published in JASS: Abstract: We separately identify two mechanisms underlying peer […]

March 24th, 2018

Capital inflows, crisis and recovery in small open economies

Our latest paper, and my first with my Melbourne School of Government affiliation (plus my UL one, of course) is […]

March 7th, 2018

Southern Charm

What's it like working at Australia's number one university, ranked 23rd in the world for social sciences? It's pretty cool, […]

February 7th, 2018

Freedom interview

I did an interview for an app I love using called Freedom. Basically I pay them to block off the […]

December 10th, 2017

Marian Finucane Interview

I did a fairly long interview about the experience of moving to Australia with my family. You can listen here.

November 17th, 2017

Increasing wages for macroeconomic stability

My first piece for the conversation is here. I'm arguing the economy would benefit from wage increases, paid for from […]

November 14th, 2017

Health Workforce Planning Models, Tools and Processes: An Evidence Review

Below is my recorded talk, here are my slides, and the handout for the 4th Global Forum on Human Resources for […]

October 5th, 2017

Aalborg Keynote

My talk from the fourth Nordic Post Keynesian conference is up. The full list of keynotes is here.

October 1st, 2017

AIST Debt and Demography talk

(Apparently Limerick is in the UK now!)

September 7th, 2017

My AIST Keynote: Europe Exposed

In which a camera man faints halfway through--he's OK though, I checked afterwards!

July 22nd, 2017

MacGill Summer School Speech

My speech at the MacGill Summer School is here. Thanks to Joe Muholland for inviting me to speak.

May 25th, 2017

Business Post Articles

All my Sunday Business Post articles (back to 2014/5, when I joined the paper) are available here, behind a paywall, and […]

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