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Imagine you crash your car at 10 miles per hour. Now imagine you crash your car at 100 miles per hour. You’re going ten times faster, but the damage to you and your car will be far more than ten times worse. This is an example of effect-asymmetry.

Credit has an effect-asymmetry, and that’s where you get the old saying that if you owe the bank one million, they own you, but if you owe one billion, you own them.

The Central Bank moved last year to put seatbelts on the supply and demand for credit by insisting households have a bit of their savings to invest in a property before they get on the property ladder. A lot of people didn’t like that move, but it was the right move to protect the system.

Not everyone in the system was protected by the Central Bank’s move. People aged between, say, 25 and 35, who were reared on an assumption that after college you get a house and a couch and a lawnmower and one of those stacking things for drink coasters, they have been harmed. The ladder has been pulled up beyond where a lot of them can reach, forcing them to rent for longer than they would have otherwise, creating large changes in rental prices.

Ask yourself the question: is rent dead money? I heard it all my life growing up in a series of rented homes. The idea is that rent is in a sense just consumption of accommodation, while paying a mortgage is both consumption of accommodation and building up equity in an investment. This dual aspect of home ownership is what intrigues Irish people most. Most of the time, you live in a mortgaged home, paying down the mortgage increases your net worth.

Your net worth is the amount of the value of your assets – in this case your house – exceeds the value of your liability – in this case your mortgage.

A few things matter here. First the price of the home at a given moment can change quickly, while the value of the mortgage changes much more slowly, so you can be in negative equity and have negative net worth pretty easily, and hundreds of thousands of homeowners, me included, are in this group.

Second, the price is dependent on people being willing to buy your house, and that needs either cash buyers, rich mummies and daddies, or a nice bank manager. The supply of credit is vital, as are rising prices. You can’t rely on ‘the ladder’ to provide you with a pension, or a nest egg, or anything else. The value of your investment may fall as well as rise.

I took a quick poll on Twitter this week, answered by around 150 people. I asked whether they thought the statement “rent is dead money” was true or false. Sixty per cent said the statement was false. Rent pays someone else’s mortgage, and frees you to change county, country or continent easily, and provides you with a service.

If those between 35 and 55 are the most indebted generation of Irish people to have ever lived, then those between 25 and 35 have had the bad fortune to come to a point in their lives where buying a house is beyond a large number of them without help from an older generation, but for whom the rental sector is not yet developed enough to furnish a solid middle class offering for the majority of them.

Worse: at the lower end of the income distribution, the lack of rental accommodation has forced those with lower incomes out into bed and breakfasts and homelessness. In the first quarter of 2016, almost 4,000 people used homeless accommodation, of whom more than 2,000 were children. This failure is damaging the next generation.

As important as the income distribution is, we know a lot more about it than the distribution of wealth in this country. Two reports, one by the Central Bank and one by Credit Suisse, have attempted to look at how Ireland’s wealth is distributed. The findings are pretty shocking. The adult in the middle of the distribution has a net worth of around €57,000, coming mostly from the value of her property. Irish people put very, very little of their wealth into pensions, or stocks, or bonds, or anything else other than housing. That’s one reason why more than half of Ireland’s workforce have no pension.

The government, personified by the very able Simon Coveney in this case, have to step in to solve the obvious market failure. Coveney has to get started now, and with a scope of tens of billions over the short term.

Home ownership in Ireland is still above 70 per cent. In Germany it’s in the low 40s. If Ireland is to transition towards a rental model over the coming decade, then apartment and house building will have to restart. But property developers, even those sitting on land banks, will not build, because their profit margins are simply too low. Prices need to rise, or regulations need to get reduced, before the developers will get their cut.

This is where the state comes in. It does not need to make a profit, and it does not need to consider its bottom line year to year as developers do, but it needs to move quickly, which the state can never do.

There’s a chance for joined up thinking, and a chance to change the face of the country: new apprenticeships, combined with better planning and a community-based model of urban development.

There’s also the chance to make a complete and utter mess of things. But let’s be optimistic. We can do it.

  Posts

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December 10th, 2019

Using Social Media to Boost your profile

My talk for the social media summit is here. 

November 5th, 2019

Innospace UL talk

Thanks for the invitation to speak, the whole talk is here. 

October 9th, 2019

Understanding the macroeconomy podcast

I really enjoyed my interview with Dr Niall Farrell of the Irish Economics Podcast. You can listen to it here:

September 15th, 2018

Identifying Mechanisms Underlying Peer Effects on Multiplex Networks

New paper with Hang Xiong and Diane Payne just published in JASS: Abstract: We separately identify two mechanisms underlying peer […]

March 24th, 2018

Capital inflows, crisis and recovery in small open economies

Our latest paper, and my first with my Melbourne School of Government affiliation (plus my UL one, of course) is […]

March 7th, 2018

Southern Charm

What's it like working at Australia's number one university, ranked 23rd in the world for social sciences? It's pretty cool, […]

February 7th, 2018

Freedom interview

I did an interview for an app I love using called Freedom. Basically I pay them to block off the […]

December 10th, 2017

Marian Finucane Interview

I did a fairly long interview about the experience of moving to Australia with my family. You can listen here.

November 17th, 2017

Increasing wages for macroeconomic stability

My first piece for the conversation is here. I'm arguing the economy would benefit from wage increases, paid for from […]

November 14th, 2017

Health Workforce Planning Models, Tools and Processes: An Evidence Review

Below is my recorded talk, here are my slides, and the handout for the 4th Global Forum on Human Resources for […]

October 5th, 2017

Aalborg Keynote

My talk from the fourth Nordic Post Keynesian conference is up. The full list of keynotes is here.

October 1st, 2017

AIST Debt and Demography talk

(Apparently Limerick is in the UK now!)

September 7th, 2017

My AIST Keynote: Europe Exposed

In which a camera man faints halfway through--he's OK though, I checked afterwards!

July 22nd, 2017

MacGill Summer School Speech

My speech at the MacGill Summer School is here. Thanks to Joe Muholland for inviting me to speak.

May 25th, 2017

Business Post Articles

All my Sunday Business Post articles (back to 2014/5, when I joined the paper) are available here, behind a paywall, and […]

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